THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR AS A FACTOR OF CURRENCY STABILITY IN THE FACE OF ECONOMIC TURBULENCE

Abstract

The article presents an in-depth examination of how grain export revenues affect Ukraine’s macro-financial stability, focusing on the multifaceted role of the agricultural sector as a key driver of external income and currency inflows. It identifies major transmission channels through which export-generated foreign currency influences the national economy, including the balance of payments, exchange rate formation, accumulation of international reserves, and fiscal sustainability. Statistical evidence covering the last decade demonstrates that grain exports account for a significant share of Ukraine’s total export structure and ensuring a stable inflow of foreign exchange and compensating for trade deficits in other sectors. The analysis reveals that periods of high global grain prices have coincided with the strengthening of the national currency and growth of international reserves, thereby supporting monetary stability and debt service capacity. The author emphasizes that the agricultural sector serves as a countercyclical buffer, cushioning the economy against external shocks, global price volatility, and geopolitical risks that have intensified since 2022. Moreover, grain exports contribute directly to the revenue side of the state budget through taxation, export duties, and related logistics services. The study highlights the need for policies that enhance the stabilizing effect of agricultural exports, such as modernizing transport and port infrastructure, improving export logistics, diversifying target markets, and introducing transparent taxation mechanisms. It is argued that strengthening the institutional and financial framework of the agrarian sector can improve investment attractiveness, ensure more predictable foreign currency inflows, and reduce vulnerability to global market disruptions. Overall, the article concludes that sustainable development of Ukraine’s grain export potential is essential for reinforcing macroeconomic resilience and maintaining financial stability in the face of ongoing global and domestic challenges.