THE PHENOMENON OF UNCERTAINTY AND LENDING RISKS IN A TRANSFORMATIONAL ECONOMY

Abstract

The article examines the phenomenon of uncertainty as a key challenge for the banking credit system in the context of a transformational economy. It is emphasized that the instability of the institutional environment, shifts in macroeconomic policy, social transformations, and geopolitical risks intensify uncertainty, which directly affects the efficiency of credit activity. Traditional approaches to credit risk assessment and management often prove inadequate under conditions of high variability and volatility of external influences. The relevance of the study is determined by the growing unpredictability of the global and national economic environment, especially in countries undergoing political, institutional, and economic transformations. These processes pose serious challenges for credit institutions, which must ensure financial stability and manage risks in an environment of systemic turbulence and structural shifts. Therefore, the need to revise existing theoretical and practical approaches to risk management is particularly urgent. The authors analyze classification approaches to risk typology and adapt them to the specifics of the credit market. Key types of risks specific to a transformational economy are identified, including political destabilization risks, institutional risks, information environment risks, and borrowers' solvency risks. The logic of these risks is considered within the framework of the preparatory, analytical, operational, and final stages of the credit process. The article proposes a conceptual model of multi-level credit risk classification based on the degree of predictability, controllability, and compensability. It is concluded that it is necessary to implement more flexible risk management tools based on adaptive and predictive approaches that consider both quantitative and qualitative aspects of risk. The results of the study are of practical value for banking institutions, as they help increase the resilience of credit portfolios in conditions of ongoing economic turbulence and support the development of effective risk management strategies.