CHANGING ROLE OF THE LEADING COUNTRIES IN THE ECONOMIC WORLD ORDER

Abstract

The conceptual and structural-historical aspects of forming the modern economic world order are researched in the article. The scale of the economic influence of key players in the world economy and the stages of the formation and strengthening of the core of the global economy are studied. The historical change in the top positions in the world’s largest national economies, ranked from 1960 to 2024 by GDP indicators, is analysed. The prospects for the transformation of the world economic core and its likely representatives in the future are outlined; a prognostic analysis of possible changes in GDP indicators, their share in world reproduction, and probable growth rates is provided. The indicative directions of global economic transformation are given, in particular in the form of a shift of capacities from developed countries in Europe to countries with developing economies in Asia and other regions. The probable change in the composition of the “Big Seven” (G7: USA, Great Britain, France, Germany, Japan, Canada, Italy) by new players (E7 – emerging markets: China, India, Indonesia, Brazil, RF, Mexico, Turkey) is considered. Several endogenous and exogenous causes of existing global disparities have been identified. Particular attention is paid to the endogenous challenges of modernity for many developed countries, including the aging and economic inequality of the population; growing costs of health care and social security; deterioration of infrastructure and the environment; and social tension due to critical immigration levels. Among the main tasks for developing countries, the need to improve macroeconomic stability is emphasized; diversifying the economy towards reducing excessive dependence on raw materials; optimizing the work of political and legal institutions, increasing investment in education, and ensuring a sufficient number of jobs for the growing number of young people, etc. The common and key endogenous cause of global economic imbalances has been identified as excessive politicization of international trade. The main directions for returning to a balanced economic world order, correcting the inadequate politicization of international economic relations, and key guidelines for mutually beneficial cooperation are proposed.