MACROECONOMIC DISBALANCES AS AN OBJECT OF ECONOMIC MEASUREMENT: A CRITICAL REVIEW OF THEORETICAL APPROACHES
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.32782/ecovis/2026-3-21Keywords:
macroeconomic disbalances, economic measurement, post-war recovery, cluster analysis, macroeconomic stability, European integration, statistical monitoringAbstract
The article critically reviews theoretical approaches to measuring macroeconomic disbalances in post-conflict and post-crisis recovery. It aims to substantiate a multidimensional diagnostic framework rather than a single composite score. The proposed dashboard comprises inflation, the current account, unemployment, trade balance, real growth, capital formation, reserves, government consumption and cumulative devaluation. Five-year aggregation uses peak inflation, cumulative exchange-rate change and means for the remaining indicators. Ward’s cluster analysis of 50 recovery episodes illustrates differences between recovery profiles. The contribution combines indicator selection, time aggregation and multidimensional classification. The findings support comparative monitoring of Ukraine’s recovery, while annual data and moderate cluster separation limit interpretation. Benchmark profiles provide analytical reference points rather than causal evidence of policy effectiveness.
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Blanchard, O. (2020). Macroeconomics (8th ed.). Pearson. Available at: https://www.pearson.com/en-us/subject-catalog/p/macroeconomics/P200000005834/9780136713883
Ministry of Finance of Ukraine (n.d.). Debt Statistics. Available at: https://mof.gov.ua/en/borgovi-pokazniki-st
European Commission. (2024). Scoreboard for the surveillance of macroeconomic imbalances. Available at: https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/economic-governance-framework/macroeconomic-imbalance-procedure/scoreboard_en
European Parliament. (2020). How has the macro-economic imbalances procedure worked in practice to improve the resilience of the euro area? Study. Available at: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2020/645710/IPOL_STU(2020)645710_EN.pdf
Eurostat. (2025). The Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure (MIP). Statistics Explained. Available at: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/SEPDF/cache/46289.pdf
Friedman, M. (1968). The Role of Monetary Policy. The American Economic Review, 58(1), 1–17.
National Bank of Ukraine (2025). Inflation Report (April 2025). Available at: https://bank.gov.ua/admin_uploads/article/Inflation_Report_for_Experts_pr_2025-Q2_en.pdf.pdf?v=14
Kaminsky, G., Lizondo, S., & Reinhart, C. M. (1998). Leading Indicators of Currency Crises. IMF Staff Papers, 45(1), 1–48. Available at: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/staffp/1998/03-98/pdf/kaminsky.pdf
Keynes, J. M. (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. Macmillan and Co.
Krugman, P. (1979). A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 11(3), 311–325.
World Bank. (2022). Lebanon Public Finance Review: Ponzi Finance? Available at: https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/099105008022213843
Stiglitz, J. E. (2002). Globalization and Its Discontents. W. W. Norton & Company.
World Bank. (2024). Ukraine - Third Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment. Available at: https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/099021324115085807
Ward, J. H. (1963). Hierarchical Grouping to Optimize an Objective Function. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 58(301), 236–244. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1963.10500845
World Bank. (2025). Updated Ukraine Recovery and Reconstruction Needs Assessment. Available at: https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2025/02/25/updated-ukraine-recovery-and-reconstruction-needs-assessment-released
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