APPROACHES TO THE FORMATION OF MECHANISMS FOR RESTORING A COUNTRY’S ECONOMIC POTENTIAL IN THE POST-WAR PERIOD
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.32782/ecovis/2024-3-4-12Keywords:
recovery, post-war period, economic potential, economic mechanism, adaptation of the national economy, institutional environment, stabilityAbstract
The article is devoted to mechanisms for restoring a country’s economic potential in the post-war period. The relevance of the study is determined by the unprecedented losses of Ukraine’s national economy caused by the full-scale war. At the same time, post-war reconstruction should not follow an inertial scenario of reproducing the pre-war economic structure, but should be based on structural modernization, innovative development, and integration into global value chains. In this regard, the article aims to analyze, systematize, generalize, and improve the theoretical and methodological foundations for restoring a country’s economic potential in the post-war period. To achieve this objective, the study analyzes the economic losses from the war and their impact on the state's production, investment, and social potential. The international experience of post-war reconstruction is generalized, including the implementation of the Marshall Plan and the recovery strategies of Germany, France, Japan, and South Korea. The analysis of these cases identified the main patterns of successful post-war recovery: the integration of external financial assistance with macroeconomic stabilization, support for the private sector, development of human capital, and institutional modernization. The study substantiates a comprehensive mechanism for restoring a country’s economic potential as a multi-level system of institutional, financial, structural, and socio-economic instruments aimed at compensating for losses, modernizing the production base, and creating the preconditions for long-term economic growth. The proposed mechanism is based on the principles of systemic approach, macro-financial stability, institutional capacity, structural modernization, social orientation, and partnership between the state, business, and international donors. The implementation of the proposed mechanism is expected to ensure the following outcomes: in the macroeconomic dimension – restoration of positive GDP dynamics, stabilization of inflationary processes and the exchange rate, gradual reduction of the budget deficit and debt burden, and growth of investment activity; in the structural dimension – modernization of the production base, increase in the share of high-tech and export-oriented sectors, development of next-generation infrastructure, and integration into international value chains; in the socio-economic dimension – recovery of the labor market and increased employment, return and reintegration of labor resources, growth of household incomes, and strengthening of human capital. The practical significance of the research results lies in the possibility of using the proposed mechanism as a foundation for improving the national strategy of post-war recovery and long-term economic development.
References
Himmelfarb A. Ukraine Third Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA3), February 2022 – December 2023. World Bank. 2024. 182 p. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1596/41082
Rogoff K. The Long-lating Economic Shock of War. International Monetary Fund. 2022. URL: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/2022/03/the-long-lasting-economic-shock-of-war
Conley H. A. Modern Marshall Plan for Ukraine Seven Lessons from History to Deliver Hope. 2022. URL: https://www.gmfus.org/news/modern-marshall-plan-ukraine
Вовченко О., Петренко Н. Консенсусний підхід до відновлення економіки Європи після другої світової війни. Київський економічний науковий журнал. 2023. Вип. 3, С. 30-35. DOI: https://doi.org/10.32782/2786-765X/2023-3-5
Vovchak O., Yaroshenko O. Застосування досвіду повоєнного економічного відновлення Німеччини, Японії та південної Кореї до реалій України. (2024). Економіка і регіон. 1(92). С. 212-218. DOI: https://doi.org/10.26906/EiR.2024.1(92).3331
Чорній В. Шляхи відродження економіки України в післявоєнний період із урахуванням світового досвіду. Herald of Khmelnytskyi National University. Economic Sciences. 2022. №6 (2). С. 219-223. DOI: https://doi.org/10.31891/2307-5740-2022-312-6(2)-37
Shpakova Н., Shpakov A. Post-war reconstruction strategies of Ukraine: institutional and economic dimensions. Ways to Improve Construction Efficiency. 2023. Vol. 1(51), P. 152-161. DOI: https://doi.org/10.32347/2707-501x.2023.51(1).152-161
Штань М. Економічна політика стимулювання повоєнного відновлення. Економіка та суспільство. 2023. Вип. 56. DOI: https://doi.org/10.32782/2524-0072/2023-56-62
Himmelfarb, A. (2024). Ukraine third rapid damage and needs assessment (RDNA3), February 2022 – December 2023. World Bank, pp. 182. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1596/41082
Rogoff, K. (2022). The long-lasting economic shock of war. International Monetary Fund. Available at: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/2022/03/the-long-lasting-economic-shock-of-war
Conley, H. A. (2022). Modern Marshall Plan for Ukraine: Seven lessons from history to deliver hope. German Marshall Fund. Available at: https://www.gmfus.org/news/modern-marshall-plan-ukraine
Vovchenko, O., & Petrenko, N. (2023). Konsensusnyi pidkhid do vidnovlennia ekonomiky Yevropy pislia druhoi svitovoi viiny [Consensus approach to the recovery of the European economy after the Second World War]. Kyivskyi Ekonomichnyi Naukovyi Zhurnal, no. 3, pp. 30–35. DOI: https://doi.org/10.32782/2786-765X/2023-3-5 [in Ukrainian].
Vovchak, O., & Yaroshenko, O. (2024). Zastosuvannia dosvidu povoiiennoho ekonomichnoho vidnovlennia Nimechchyny, Yaponii ta Pivdennoi Korei do realii Ukrainy [Application of the experience of post-war economic recovery of Germany, Japan and South Korea to the realities of Ukraine]. Ekonomika i Rehiion, vol. 92, no. 1, pp. 212–218. DOI: https://doi.org/10.26906/EiR.2024.1(92).3331 [in Ukrainian].
Chornii, V. (2022). Shliakhy vidrodzhennia ekonomiky Ukrainy v pisliavoiennyi period iz urakhuvanniam svitovoho dosvidu [Ways of revival of the economy of Ukraine in the post-war period, taking into account world experience]. Herald of Khmelnytskyi National University. Economic Sciences, vol. 312, no. 6(2), pp. 219–223. DOI: https://doi.org/10.31891/2307-5740-2022-312-6(2)-37 [in Ukrainian].
Shpakova, H., & Shpakov, A. (2023). Post-war reconstruction strategies of Ukraine: Institutional and economic dimensions. Ways to Improve Construction Efficiency, vol. 51, no. 1, pp. 152–161. DOI: https://doi.org/10.32347/2707-501x.2023.51(1).152-161
Shtan, M. (2023). Ekonomichna polityka stymuliuvannia povoiiennoho vidnovlennia [Economic policy of stimulating post-war recovery]. Ekonomika ta Suspilstvo, no. 56. DOI: https://doi.org/10.32782/2524-0072/2023-56-62 [in Ukrainian].
