STRATEGIC FORECASTING UNDER UNCERTAINTY FOR AGRICULTURAL ENTERPRISES

Abstract

The article examines the impact of uncertainty on the functioning of Ukrainian agricultural enterprises under conditions of full-scale war. The study highlights both external and internal factors that complicate strategic forecasting, including port blockades, changes in logistical routes, price fluctuations, workforce mobilization, and environmental and climatic risks. Special attention is paid to the disruption of Black Sea transport corridors and the need for rapid adaptation of production and commercial processes, including the use of alternative railway and road routes through neighboring countries. The research analyzes the theoretical approaches to the concept of "uncertainty" in economic and managerial literature, identifying its key components and forms, such as market, financial, and regulatory unpredictability. The article identifies the main categories of challenges for agricultural enterprises: asset security, logistics and supply, financial and economic risks, labor shortages, production risks, and market and export instability. Strategic forecasting is considered a central element in managing uncertainty, including data collection and systematization, trend analysis, scenario planning, production and financial forecasting, resource optimization, and the implementation of innovative and digital technologies. The study emphasizes that effective management of uncertainty requires an integrated approach to decision-making, risk assessment, and adaptation to rapidly changing economic, political, and environmental conditions. The findings suggest that the sustainability and competitiveness of agricultural enterprises in Ukraine depend on the ability to anticipate potential threats, develop contingency plans, and ensure the efficient use of production and logistical resources. By systematizing theoretical approaches and practical measures, the article provides a framework for improving strategic management and enhancing the resilience of agricultural enterprises under conditions of military and economic instability. Moreover, the research underlines the importance of continuous monitoring of market trends and policy changes to minimize risks. It also highlights the role of innovation in logistics, resource management, and production planning as key drivers of operational efficiency. Finally, the study confirms that building organizational flexibility and adaptive capacity is essential for long-term stability and growth in uncertain environments.