DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS AS A TOOL FOR ANTI-CRISIS DIAGNOSTICS OF DAIRY PRODUCERS

Abstract

The article is devoted to the comprehensive study of theoretical and practical aspects of using discriminant analysis as a fundamental tool for anti-crisis diagnostics of dairy producers in Ukraine under the conditions of martial law. The study identifies that in the modern economic realities of Ukraine, the problem of bankruptcy of economic entities is becoming critically urgent due to the destabilization of the financial state, destruction of logistics chains, energy shortages, and the consequences of military operations. The paper defines the essence of bankruptcy through the prism of the current legal framework of Ukraine, including the Code of Ukraine on Bankruptcy Procedures, the Commercial and Criminal Codes, and the analytical approaches of leading domestic and foreign scientists. Special attention is paid to the strategic importance of the dairy industry for the food security of the state and its high adaptive capacity in the face of macro-economic shocks. The empirical part of the research involves a comparative assessment of the bankruptcy probability of the largest Ukrainian dairy producers based on their financial statements for 2023. The diagnostic process was carried out using a multidimensional approach, involving the parallel application of seven predictive models, including international classics (Altman, Beaver, Lis, Springate, Taffler & Tishaw) and specialized domestic models developed by O. Tereshchenko and O. Matviychuk. The results of the calculations demonstrate that despite the challenges of the war, most enterprises maintain a stable financial position and belong to the «safe zone» of solvency, supported by stable domestic demand and the realization of export potential to the European Union market. The article proves that discriminant analysis serves as a core of a preventive anti-crisis strategy, allowing for the early identification of «weak signals» of financial distress. Specifically, for PrAT «Ternopilskyi Molokozavod» (PJSC «Ternopil Dairy Plant»), the research identified a need for active anti-crisis maneuvering to optimize the capital structure and reduce current liabilities. The author emphasizes that the accuracy of the diagnostics is significantly improved by combining foreign methodologies with domestic models that better reflect the specific risks of the Ukrainian market. The study concludes with the substantiation of the need for state support in the form of preferential credit programs and grants to ensure the long-term viability and modernization of the agricultural sector. The findings have practical value for management and stakeholders in developing adaptive scenarios for responding to identified financial risks in the post-crisis period.