ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL ASPECTS OF E-COMMERCE DEVELOPMENT IN UKRAINE

Abstract

The financial mechanisms of e-commerce development in Ukraine are examined in the context of consumer market digitalisation and the growing role of digital financial instruments in supporting online consumer demand. It is established that the Ukrainian e-commerce market has formed its own economic ecosystem, with online microlending as an integral structural component: the integration of microfinance organisations into marketplace platforms has substantially lowered barriers to online purchases, accelerated the growth of the average order value, and expanded the range of consumers with access to digital credit instruments. Before the full-scale invasion, the Ukrainian e-commerce market grew at 25–30% annually, with the number of online shoppers exceeding 15 million, driven by the rapid expansion of marketplaces such as Rozetka, Prom.ua, and OLX, as well as the widespread emergence of Buy Now Pay Later services and embedded lending solutions. To quantitatively assess the financial risks of digital trade, an econometric model of the dependence of online microloan debt volumes on the average wage level has been constructed using quarterly data for 2018–2023. The population income is a key driver of consumer demand in e-commerce and credit activity on digital platforms: rising wages stimulate not only purchasing power but also borrowing for online purchases, revealing a structural link between income dynamics and the financial sustainability of digital trade. The cyclical dynamics of the market are analysed across three distinct phases: pre-crisis growth, the COVID-19 adaptation period when e-commerce accelerated significantly due to lockdowns, and the shock of the 2022 full-scale invasion, which caused a simultaneous collapse in both online trade volumes and microlending supply. The recovery of debt indicators in 2023 signals the gradual return of consumer activity in the digital space. It is substantiated that the sustainable development of e-commerce in Ukraine requires not only the improvement of payment and logistics infrastructure, but also the formulation of a balanced regulatory framework for online consumer lending, including transparency of loan terms, protection of borrowers’ rights, and the limitation of excessive interest rates.